Live box scores and per-game game logs come from ESPN; deep season & career history — a quarter-century of it (back to 2001) — is layered in from sports-reference. We track the full ranked & high-major Division I men's universe — the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Big East plus every AP/Coaches-ranked program — roughly 80 current teams and 1,000+ active players, plus thousands of historical players in the stat explorer. Every category is captured: points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks, turnovers, minutes, shooting splits and advanced marks (PER, TS%, BPM). Missing data renders as —, never a fake zero.
A player's projection is a per-game rate problem. We take each stat's recent game-by-game history, apply a recency-weighted (EWMA) average so the last few weeks matter most, then regress toward the league baseline — small samples get pulled toward the average until enough games accumulate. College rosters churn hard, so the regression is deliberately heavy. Counting stats (rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks) are turned into an over/under probability with a Poisson / Negative-Binomial distribution that respects real over-dispersion; points use a Normal on the player's own variance.
When a real market line and price exist, we de-vig the market and anchor to it — the market is the sharpest single estimate available, and we only surface an edge relative to that fair price. When no market exists (off-season, or a stat the book doesn't post), the projection is shown as information only, with no edge or verdict attached. We never temperature-scale a probability that is already the market consensus, and we never publish a profit/ROI record we have not CLV-validated. Calibration — shown on the Accuracy page — is honesty, not a promise of a beatable edge.
Once the season is live, every projection is graded the next morning against the box score, on the game's local date. A prop that lands exactly on the line is a push; a player who does not play is a void (pending), never a loss. Graded results feed the calibration page; no result is counted against a stat it does not actually measure.
For entertainment & information only. 21+. Please play responsibly. The CBB King is not affiliated with the NCAA or any member institution.